According to the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) latest El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Wrap-Up, while ENSO remains neutral, model outlooks and recent warming in the Pacific Ocean suggests a 50% likelihood that an El Niño would occur.
Meanwhile, all eight international models surveyed by the bureau show a steady warming of the central tropical Pacific Ocean over the next six months. Six of these models indicated that this warming would approach or surpass El Niño thresholds by July 2017.
El Niño is usually associated with below average winter-spring rainfall over eastern Australia and warmer than average winter-spring maximum temperatures over the southern half of the country.
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Australians should probably gear up for El Niño as the weather bureau forecasts a 50% likelihood of the phenomenon forming this year, with eight climate models indicating that El Niño may form this July.