Africa and the Middle East will be the most
risky regions for business in 2010, while some
Asian and South Pacific nations are expected
to become increasingly comfortable for risk-
averse Australian businesses.
A suite of recently released global risk maps
unanimously label unstable African nations in
cluding Somalia, the Democratic Republic of
Congo and Zimbabwe as the world’s most risky
countries. Likewise, the war-torn Middle East fea
tured heavily, with Iraq and current “pariah” state
Iran considered high risk.
Risk ratings from Aon Risk Services upgrad
ed Sudan, Venezuela and Yemen to its highest risk
category in 2010, a grading that continues to in
clude war-ravaged Afghanistan. Meanwhile Maple
croft’s new ratings put 24 countries in its extreme
risk category, 17 of which are in Africa, though
Bangladesh and Pakistan are also included.
Based on higher volumes of credit and polit
ical risk claims in international insurance markets,
Aon saw fit to downgrade 18 countries in 2010,
and upgraded only nine, indicating the worst of
the crisis is not over.
Closer to home, the insurance house con
sidered East Timor, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Van
uatu and Burma less risky than in 2009, with
the one blot on the Asia-Pacific Region stage
continuing to be the reclusive North Korea.
Several of the highest risk countries, includ
ing DR Congo, Nigeria, Iraq and Pakistan, are
owners of huge oil, gas and mineral reserves,
threatening the supply chains of western and BRIC
(Brazil, Russia, India and China) companies alike.
Maplecroft says high-risk Asia-Pacific Region ju
risdictions critical to supply chains include the
Philippines, Indonesia, and India.
Water and food insecurity featured heavily in
this year’s rankings. An Aon statement said the
combination of changing climates and weather
patterns, demand for bio-fuels, increased de
mand for food and water and lean financial times
are combining to raise the profile of these risks
to stability.
The countries rated least at risk in Maple
croft’s global risks index were predominantly
Scandinavian, with Norway, Iceland, Finland,
Sweden, and Denmark setting the standard for
the rest of Europe.
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